The crisis at a glance
Every figure carries its survey year. Highlighted tiles are moving the wrong way.
16.5%
of all under-fives; stunting overall is 44.9%
TLDHS 2025-26
≈70,000
of roughly 157,000 under-fives nationwide
JME 2024; UNICEF
18.5%
up from 8.6% in 2020, an emergency signal
TLDHS 2025-26
41.4%
now the most prevalent form of malnutrition
TLDHS 2025-26
19.1%
of children 6-23m, down from 35.3% in 2020
TLDHS 2025-26
30.0%
of women 15-49; 41.7% during pregnancy
TLDHS 2025-26
Progress has stalled
Two decades of surveys show a plateau since 2016, while the national target sits far below the current path.
The burden is concentrated
Second highest in Southeast Asia, and inside the country a child's risk depends heavily on where they are born.
Gradients run the same way everywhere: rural 47.6% vs urban 36.7%; poorest wealth quintile 56.5% vs richest 32.3%, a gap that has doubled since 2016. A 22.5-point spread separates Ermera from Dili.
Why it persists
A chain of deprivation runs from the mother's plate to the national purse. Three tiers, UNICEF framework.
Immediate
- Diet. 96.9% of toddlers ate starchy staples in the prior day; only 36.6% ate flesh foods and 3.1% dairy (2020).
- Illness. Diarrhoea 14% and fever 22% in two weeks; sick children are often fed less, not more.
- Timing. Stunting peaks at 55.5% at ages 24-35m, the tail of the first 1,000 days.
Underlying
- Households. 50.4% moderately or severely food insecure (2020); the lean season runs November to March.
- Hygiene. 28.4% basic handwashing facility; 6.2% of caregivers wash hands before feeding a child.
- Care. 21.7% of women never attended school; 57.8% of births come within 36 months of the last.
Structural
- Poverty. 41.8% by the national line (2014); 48.3% multidimensionally poor.
- Food system. Rain-fed farming, about 60% of cereals imported, El Niño drought in 2023-24.
- Fiscal cliff. The Petroleum Fund is projected to deplete around 2034; nutrition gets about 2% of the budget.
What works, and what it costs
The evidence base is strong, the national plan exists, and the financing gap is small by budget standards.
Proven interventions
- Small-quantity lipid-based nutrients for ages 6-24m: severe stunting down 15-17% in trial meta-analyses.
- Treat wasting now. CMAM/RUTF reached 63% of cases in 2023; wasting has doubled since 2020.
- Feeding counselling. Exclusive breastfeeding has sat near 50-55% for fifteen years; dietary diversity collapsed to 19.1%.
- The Lancet core package at 90% coverage would avert about 20% of stunting and 15% of under-five deaths.
$1 → $23
return per dollar on full-scale nutrition action, World Bank Investment Framework for Nutrition, 2024.
- Timor-Leste ask: +US$55M to 2030, about US$7M a year or 0.3% of GDP.
- Documented return: more than US$10 per US$1 invested (World Bank national costing).
- Cost of inaction: US$41M a year in lost economic activity, about 1% of GDP.
- Goal: stunting below 25% by 2030 under PANKOS, approved November 2025.
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